Ten Global Trends Impacting the Future of Congregations

What are some of the top global trends impacting the future of congregations? What are the implications of these trends for your congregation? What actions does your congregation need to take to respond to these trends and implications?

For the past four months I have been doing some reading on top global trends impacting the future of congregations. Last month I conducted four webinars that included 35 ministry leaders. We talked about these trends, and the implications and actions for congregations.

I invite you to join the dialogue and share your insights into additional trends, and other implications and actions we missed. Send your contribution to GBullard@TheColumbiaPartnership.org. Perhaps out of this we can develop additional trends to share at a future date.

A key request as you read these trends: Don’t shoot the messenger. I am reporting trends, sharing ideas about their implications for congregations, and suggesting actions congregations might need to take. I did not create the trends. In some cases I might not be promoting the trends. I am only saying these are trends we cannot ignore. I also realize several of these trends will challenge theological and ecclesiastical positions held by some North American congregations.

Global Trend One: Within 50 years the world population will surpass 10 billion.

Currently the world population is 6.6 billion. A significant pace of population growth will continue for the foreseeable future. Underneath this macro trend are thousands of specific trends.

One that stands out is the aging of world population. The senior adult population is increasing dramatically throughout the world. Especially in the developed or first world people are living much longer. This fact alone greatly increases world population. The traditional age of retirement is losing its significance. Second and third careers are becoming common as more people make mid-life changes in occupation.

In the developing or two-thirds world the birth rates have not slowed down as much as predicted. This drives the younger end of population growth, and is the part of population growth most often publicized.

A second specific trend revolves around the number of different active birth generations. Employers are seeing up to four birth generations represented in their employees. This presents challenges because of differing work ethics and value systems characteristic of each birth generation.

Global Trend Two: Family structures are continuing to become more diverse, and the traditional nuclear family is diminishing.

Less than one-fourth of households are the traditional nuclear family. The various types and categories of families/households have been dramatically increasing over the past five decades. The fastest growing type of family/household has one person in it. This means the stereotypical family of mother-father-sister-brother-cat-and-dog, around which so much of the post-World War II generational values were built, is diminishing.

Global Trend Three: The acceptance of diversity and pluralism is growing.

The population of the world is increasingly diverse and pluralistic. This is a well established fact. The key word in this trend however is “acceptance.” In North America many people are becoming more tolerant regarding diversity, and more open theologically and methodologically to viewpoints, practices, and life styles they would not have embraced too many decades ago.

Racial and ethnic diversity is on the rise. A greater acceptance of women in various leadership roles is embraced. People of diverse religious backgrounds are now present in communities, at school, and at work. Theological norms of the past are now open for dialogue and even debate. Societal values are changing radically. Many communities are experiencing increasing multi-cultural expressions, socio-economic diversity, and lifestyle diversity.

Global Trend Four: Immigration and emigration movements are exploding.

People are increasingly not living in their country of birth, but they may still be living among people of their dominate culture. Newer generations of Americans will increasingly live outside the United States to pursue personal and career interests.

The people groups of the world are mobile. Various people groups are living throughout the world and impacting the cultures in which they reside by creating more pluralistic societies.

Global Trend Five: The growth of Islam is continuing at a significant pace.

Islam will continue to gain power and influence, and have the largest impact of any religious group in the world. Islam is the fastest growing major religion in the world. Birth rates within the Islamic families are driving this more than the rate of conversion. Muslims are also spreading throughout the world and have major economic and cultural impacts wherever they are present in large numbers.

Many European cities are likely to be dominated by Muslims at some point during this century. Islam will surpass Christianity as being the dominate world religion before the end of this century. The number of Muslins worldwide has doubled since 1970 to 1.2 billion. Projections are for the number of Muslins to be 2 billion by 2025 as compared to 3 billion Christians.

Global Trend Six: Communications technologies are changing the way we live.

The pace of technological change, in general, and communication technologies, specifically, accelerates with each new generation of discoveries and applications. Communication technology increasingly dominates both the economy and society. Communication technology is creating a knowledge-dependent world society with social interaction creating new perspectives of knowledge on a continual basis.

Creation of virtual communities happens out of the overflow of typical, ongoing social networking. An increasing number of people know more about people they interact with digitally than about people they interact with face-to-face.

While the watchword during the American political crisis called Watergate was to follow the money, during the current communication explosion the watchword is to follow the information flow.

Global Trend Seven: Information-based organizations are in ascendancy.

Information-based organizations are quickly displacing the old command-and control model of management. We are moving from centralized to decentralized to distributive systems for organizations. Distributive systems are networked organizations that empower the grassroots.

Global Trend Eight: Increasingly Christianity will be dominated by the Southern Hemisphere.

Philip Jenkins through his book The Next Christendom: The Coming of Global Christianity [Oxford University Press, 2002] and other mediums has been a major proponent of the next Christendom coming from the Southern Hemisphere. I believe he is correct. Evidence of this already exists at the edge of North American Christianity.

More specifically, Christianity is becoming dominated by people of color from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Already more than 60 percent of Christians are people of color outside Europe and North America. This does not mean they control denominations yet. It does mean they dominate the spread of the Christian movement.

Global Trend Nine: Time is becoming the world’s most precious commodity.

Many people consider money, or its equitable distribution, the most precious commodity in the world. In some parts of the world this may be true But, in comparatively wealthy North America, time is the most precious commodity.

Workers will increasingly choose more time over more money. They will want more vacation or holiday time. They will want sabbaticals for personal renewal. Simultaneously they want to be more highly compensated for the time they devote to work, and a stake in the profits of their company or other means of gaining long-term economic value. If they cannot get these from working for someone else, they will launch their own business and live out their own time values.

Global Trend Ten: A shortage of natural resources is having global impact with water being the key issue.

While many natural resources are renewable, the pace we are using these resources is much greater than the pace at which they are renewing. Going Green is not just an issue for the political or social fringe. It is a core global issue.

Water is the key issue of the 21^st century whereas oil was the key issue of the 20^th century. Dwindling supplies of water in China will impact the global economy. The diminishing of natural resources is giving rise to a focus on social responsibility. Consumers are increasingly demanding social responsibility from organizations and themselves. They are increasingly calling on congregations to be world citizens concerning natural resources.

What trends are missing? What are you experiencing and ready about global trends that was not presented here? Let me know at GBullard@TheColumbiaPartnership.org.

Comments

[Mike Thompson]

George,
Just a comment on the information/communication trends. I know that the availability of information is changing how we look at things, and for the most part seems to be a good trend. But the amount of information, some of which is erroneous, can be overpowering, at times leading to a "brain lock" from an information overload. Suggestions on dealing with the amount of information in a constructive way would be useful.
Thanks for the webinar recently on this topic.